GUSTAV HEADING TO THE GULF... T.D. 8 WILL BECOME A STORM TODAY AND HEAD TOWARD THE U.S. HEAVY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT..

Thursday comments....

1. Gustav is just off the eastern end of Jamaica this morning and moving slowly to the southwest. Massive storms are developing around Gustav which shows the system is going through a development stage. Gustav should become a hurricane again today. The path has not changed much since yesterday with the storm in the Gulf by Monday and heading to the Gulf Coast landfall on Tuesday. I think the area between Mobile and Houston is now the place for the storm to hit next week. Most of the models and going for a central Louisiana landfall as you can see on the combo image below.

2. T.D. 8 will become a tropical storm today and the path right now will take into the eastern Bahamas by Tuesday. From there, the storm will either move north into the Atlantic or move west toward Florida. It would appear the Florida path might be the more likely path right now.

3. The cold front coming into the Great Lakes and Midwest will produce another round of heavy thunderstorms today. I opted to go with TS2 storms today along the front given the front is running out of steam coming east. The map shows the area of concern below.

Share this:

GUSTAV IS A STORM THAT WANTS TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF. PEOPLE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM MOBILE TO CORPUS CHRISTI NEED TO TAKE THIS ONE SERIOUSLY. FAY'S RAIN ADVANCE INTO THE DRY AIR... COLD FRONT PRODUCES HEAVY STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

There are some storms that just want to become a major hurricane, and Gustav is one of those storms. Gustav is interacting with the islands today, but once it moves west-northwestward to a position south of Cuba, it will regain hurricane strength. You can see on the GFDL forecast and the combo tracks that the consensus is to take Gustav into the central Gulf of Mexico by Labor Day. Once there, I think Gustav can become at least a Category 3 hurricane, and I outlined the area from Mobile to Corpus as the possible hit zones for the storm. If Gustav goes on the track shown by the GFDL model, it would be a disaster for New Orleans. The point I have Gustav will most likely become a major hurricane in the Gulf and folks along the Gulf coast should pay close attention and start to prepare for the storm.

Fay's rain is trying to advance north, but the high across New England is blocking the progress of the rain. If you notice the radars this morning, the rain is actually drying up as it runs into the dry air across the Northeast. This is not good for folks who are hoping for rain to ease the current dry weather pattern.

The front coming into the western Lakes and Midwest will produce TS2 type storms with a few TS3 storms mixed in. I placed my area ahead of the current line, and ahead of the SPC area given that I think the bulk of the storms will end up ahead of the current line. While other storms may develop across parts of eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota late today, I think the current cloud cover and storms will tend to limit the instability for severe storms. Thursday, the threat of TS2 storms moves east across the Great Lakes and western Ohio Valley.

Share this:

GUSTAV COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK ... FAY'S RAINS ARE HEADING INTO THE DRY AREAS

We are once again faced with a hurricane that will enter the gulf by the end of the week. The operational models are not handling the storm very well, and as you can see on the model spread below, the storm can go either west into the Yucatan or northwest into the gulf. The GFDL image below has the storm going across the western end of Cuba and into the gulf by Saturday. I am not sure where the storm will go once in the gulf, but with the high building in across the Great Lakes this weekend, it will probably be shoved west toward the Texas coast. That's the best guess right now.

In regard to Fay, the rain is moving into the dry areas of the western Carolinas where they need the rain and up to 2 inches will fall the next 36 hours. Also, watch the severe threat east of the storm track as shown on the map below. We had several tornado reports yesterday and we may have more today.

Share this:

TROPICAL RAINSTORM FAY WILL BRING GOOD RAIN FOR MANY PLACES

The overall pattern across the country this week is not going to be all that difficult. The remains of Fay, which are over the South, will spread northward and eastward this week and places that have lacked rain will actually end up getting much-needed rainfall this week. Some places across Alabama may get flooding due to the heavy band of rain that is in place. I do think that the western Carolinas and all the way north into southern Pennsylvania can get up to an inch of rain this week as the moisture from Fay spreads to the north and east.

Elsewhere, the system in the Caribbean will develop into a tropical depression today and will probably become a tropical storm in the next day or so. The GFDL takes that system up toward Florida by the weekend, so we may be dealing with another tropical storm in Florida.

Share this:

FAY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.... FRONT COMES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW HEAVY STORMS....

1. Fay is over southern Mississippi this morning and will continue to produce areas of heavy rain today. Some places in Mississippi, Alabama and parts of Louisiana will have over 4 inches of rain. Thunderstorms will flare up around the eastern side of the storm, and there will be a threat of wind and tornadoes with the storms. Eventually, Fay will wind down and just turn into a blob of moisture this week.

2. The front coming across the Northeast will have enough gusto to produce a few heavy storms. This is not going to be a widespread event, but just a few storms across parts of New York, Ontario, Quebec, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Share this: